Export Miss, Reserve Gap Deepen Economic Risk

Sri Lanka appears set to fall short of its ambitious 2025 export revenue target of US$ 18.2 billion, missing by nearly US$ 1 billion. According to Export Development Board (EDB) Chairman, the economy is likely to close 2025 with exports of about US$ 17–17.5 billion — a shortfall linked largely to severe recent domestic disasters and global headwinds.

Over the first ten months, combined merchandise and services exports reached only US$ 14.4 billion. While this marks a 6% growth over the past decade, the pace remains insufficient to meet original targets. The shortfall not only derails the government’s 2025 plan but also risks undermining external buffers at a delicate time for the economy.

The gap gains urgency in light of external conditions: under the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s current bailout programme, Sri Lanka aimed to rebuild foreign–exchange reserves to around US$ 7 billion by end‑2025. However, this “7 billion” figure is not a rigid quota but a projected Gross Official Reserve (GOR) estimate under favourable inflows.

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